A
new ball game
Shafqat
Mahmood
The
author is a former Senator and a former federal and provincial minister
smahmood@lhr.comsats.net.pk
General
Musharraf's transformation into the president of our Islamic Republic has not
been received with kindness either at home or abroad. An event that should have
come as no surprise to anyone, has unleashed an astonishing torrent of vitriol
and condemnation. The major political parties of the country have reacted with
venom and are refusing to talk to him. The international community has not been
charitable either. Tough words are pouring in from the United States and Europe
and from our peers, the Commonwealth. It seems that a line in the sand has been
crossed and no one is willing to forgive him.
These reactions may
subside over time, as they usually do. Foreign powers may take a leaf out of the
Indian book and deal with him because they have no choice in the matter. They
may also rationalise that Pakistan is a strategically located nuclear power in
danger of being taken over by hard line Islamic fundamentalists. A liberal
general at the top may be a better bet against them, in their view, then a bunch
of 'corrupt' political 'nincompoops'.
This argument would
prevail in the West as all arguments do in which the fundamentalist menace is
invoked. The Algerian military establishment has been allowed to get away with
mass murder because it is fighting the 'good' fight. Even the fact that the
Islamists had won free and fair elections in Algeria was not only overlooked but
also positively sent a shock wave of fear all over Europe. Democracy was then
easily and readily sacrificed over the altar of liberal dictatorship. We may
well have begun to fit the same mould.
It would indeed be
ironic, given his uniform and manner of take over, if General Musharraf begins
to be seen as a defender of liberal values. Yet, as I have said before, this is
not far fetched at all. Fundamentalism is the new clarion call to arms in the
West and the general has positioned himself well to lead a charge against it.
The positive reaction to his Seerat conference speech may have been a turning
point. He clearly got a lift from the praise that poured in from all quarters.
There is little doubt that this played a role in the timing of his move upwards.
While the West may
readily reconcile to this change because of their preoccupation with radical
Islam, things may not be so simple at home. While some of us keep ranting about
the emergence of the mullah menace, influential sections of public opinion are
least pushed about it. The last time I wrote about the danger of a Taliban like
take over in Pakistan, I was severely rebuked by well known Jang columnist and
my former cabinet colleague and 'buzurg dost', Irshad Ahmed Haqqani. Calling my
fears misplaced, he probably reflected a popular opinion that fundamentalism is
no real threat to Pakistan.
While, the
general's anti fundamentalist credentials may put home grown liberals like
myself in some quandary, it does not impress the political class and important
sections of the intelligentsia one bit. They see the Presidential move of
General Musharraf as nothing loftier than a straightforward power grab. Quite in
line with what his military predecessors, Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan and Ziaul Haq
had done. This is the critical factor that has begun to change perceptions about
General Musharraf. He is now cast in the mould of a stereotypical military
ruler, in for a long ride.
This perception is
key to understanding the shift that is coming about in the public opinion about
General Musharraf. So far he had been seen as a sincere, well-meaning man who
had been forced to take over because of the follies of Nawaz Sharif. Not any
more. His taking over of the Presidency is seen as an act of personal ambition
that was neither an institutional need nor a national imperative. As we who have
been in political business know to our dismay, people love those who sacrifice.
Hence the reverence for Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. They also have little time for
ambitious power plays. This cynical disregard the general will now have to
contend with.
The important issue
here is not what the reality is. It is the perception that counts and this is
not so favourable about the general right now. This is sad because I am one of
those who believe that General Musharraf is a good man and sincere to this
country. He is straight talking, well meaning and his heart is in the right
place. He is indeed the sort of man one would like to have as a friend. I have
often said that if we had to have a general in charge one could no better than
Pervez Musharraf.
Yet, the tide of
history is against him. We are a country with innumerable problems. Our economy
is in dire straits. Population is exploding at a frightening pace and there are
not enough jobs to absorb the millions who come into the work force every year.
There is a huge overhang of external and internal debt and we are locked in a
deadly conflict with a bigger and better armed neighbour. Our institutions of
the state are in tatters, a mere shadow of their once glorious past. Talk about
challenges that a nation faces, we have them all and then some.
These harsh ground
realities would be no different if the 'dreaded' politicians were to take over.
What would be different is the legitimacy that comes from the sanction of
popular will. General Musharraf faces all these problems without legitimacy and
thus his power is more precariously balanced than that of a political ruler. If
he falters for whatever reason, there will no cushion of legitimacy to fall back
upon. That is why his job is much more difficult than that of an elected leader.
By taking over as
President he has also crossed over from the safety of the military barracks to
the minefield of politics. No doubt he continues to be the Army Chief, and
Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, yet he is now more firmly in the public and
political domain. He would now be held to higher standards and the criticism of
his conduct sharper than it was in the past. He would realise soon that the
rules of the game have changed. His own colleagues would no longer see him as
strictly military, let alone the politicians. They are sharpening their claws to
get at him, now that he is a fellow competitor for high political office and
thus fair game.
The example of
Ziaul Haq, who was able to hold on to all the levers of power, is no longer
relevant because times have changed. The press is free and the politicians have
a space under this dispensation that they never had under Ziaul Haq. The Zia
regime was also harshly draconian ready to use severe repression to squelch
dissent. This General Musharraf has chosen not to do and there is some doubt
whether a harsh military regime can be imposed in this day and age. This creates
new realities in which General Musharraf's lack of legitimacy could be a serious
handicap once the chips are down.
The only way that
President Musharraf can redeem himself is through performance and bold
performance at that. The India visit provides a quick opportunity to set the
ball rolling. Whatever the many politicians and others that meet him might say,
this is not a time for safe moves and dumb charades. The sub-continent is hungry
for peace and Musharraf has a unique opportunity to seize the moment. If he is
able to transcend the legacy of war and fashion an enduring peace, his position
will be assured in the history of our people.
If peace becomes
the foundation of his Presidency, the rest would be relatively easy. His
economic management has so far been very conservative yet it has met the
standards set by international financial institutions. Peace with India would
not only reaffirm the faith of the international community, it would encourage
foreign investment to come in with force. Full economic recovery would not
happen in a day or even a year but if the direction is right it would surely
come.
This then is the
challenge of General Musharraf's new position. He has to deliver on peace and he
has deliver on the economy. If he fails on either, no amount of raw power would
be able to sustain him. For the sake of the country, one can only wish that he
is successful.