The writer is a former Senator and a former federal and provincial minister

smahmood@lhr.comsats.net.pk

All roads lead to Delhi and Agra right now. General Musharraf and his party leave tomorrow. A number of journalists, writers, columnists, and 'intellectuals' have already left. Many more, including armchair pontificators like myself, would have loved to be there. And why not? There is an outside chance that something special may happen at this summit. If it does, it would indeed be a moment to savour.

The expectations on both sides of the border are rising like a tidal wave unleashed by a summer cyclone. This is the one time that the people are ahead of their governments. They want action not just useless talk. However much the two governments may preach caution, people are sick and tired of unending conflict. They not only hope but are counting on their leaders to deliver.

This puts the onus squarely on the leadership of the two countries. I wonder if Mr Vajpayee and General Musharraf quite understand the forces that have been unleashed. It is as if the time for peace has arrived and nothing less would suffice. A failure now would be a huge disappointment. And let there be no mistake. The cost of this failure would be heavy. Not only for the people of the two countries but also for the leaders. They have to have the breadth and the vision to seize the moment.

Clearly people are not naive to expect that all outstanding issues between the two countries would be resolved in one meeting. What they would like to see is a move in the direction of resolution. It is said that a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. This meeting itself is the first step. There is a yearning that much more would happen at Agra on July 15 to make the long and tedious journey easier.

Emperor Shah Jehan put Agra on the map of the world by building a monument to love. Can Musharraf and Vajpayee secure Agra's place in history by building a monument to peace? This is the crux of the challenge that the two face. Leaders become statesmen when they transcend the narrow confines of politics. Is there a chance that accident of history may have brought two such leaders together?

Statesmanship does not mean compromising national interest. It only means having a vision of national interest that goes beyond short-term political gains. Or, it means paying a political price at the altar of national interest. Such leaders are remembered by their people. The difference between ordinary politics and statesmanship is a focus on the ultimate solution even if it means temporary discomfort. This summit will determine whether we have such leaders in India and Pakistan.

Peace between two equal or nearly equal contending parties will never happen without some give and take. Only after a total military victory can one side impose its will. Even then, as we know from history, the peace that emerges is fragile. The treaty of Versailles after the First World War is an example. In the present case there has been no military victory and no side is in a position to impose its will. Neither can India nor will Pakistan concede to each other's dream scenarios. Peace, if it comes, will have to be a compromise.

There is no shortage of people who are asking their respective leaders to stick to their guns and not give an inch. If no one is willing to give an inch there will be no peace. All the leaders who came before, in both countries, stuck to their guns. They may have earned some plaudits from the hardliners and the chest thumpers. They may have even managed to prolong their rule on the basis of this conflict. There was however no peace. Both countries suffered.

The chest-thumping route is the easier route. You cannot go wrong politically by mouthing orthodoxy. It may not get the two countries anywhere but it has been safe. But then, we may like to remember these prophetic lines from the poet Robert Frost;

" two roads diverged in the wood, and I-

I took the one less travelled by

and that has made all the difference."

The less travelled road in the subcontinent is the road to peace. If taken, it would make all the difference to the future of our people.Some of our political leaders are playing down the importance of this summit because General Musharraf does not have a popular mandate. Yes, it is true that he is not elected, but there are other circumstances which are in his favour. These leaders may like to recall how difficult it was to pursue a peace agenda with the army breathing down their neck. Rajiv/Benazir meeting in 1989 was sabotaged with all kinds of ridiculous stories in the press. The Lahore Summit was undermined by other stories suggesting military's unhappiness with the entire process. Clearly, the military when not in power was not willing to give its approval to any compromise solution.

Now the situation has completely changed. A year and a half in power has brought home the realities of life to the military leadership. They have now come to appreciate the necessity of peace in the subcontinent. Yes, the insistence on Kashmir being the primary focus is there and should be. It indeed is the issue that stands between a comprehensive and viable peace. Yet, the necessity for dialogue, the urgency to move forward, is far more apparent in the military's thinking than it was when the civilians were in power.

It is obvious from a Pakistani perspective that there can be no peace with India without an unconditional backing from our armed forces. The political leaders may feel miffed because they are not in the loop but they surely realise that Musharraf is on a much stronger wicket because he has the complete support of his uniformed colleagues. He is therefore better placed than the political leaders to pursue a peace agenda with the Indians.

His other advantage is that the major political parties are in any case pro peace. They may have their differences with General Musharraf but when push comes to shove they will be in no position to oppose any serious peace moves that emerge from this summit.

The Indians have also to realise that this is their best chance of peace with Pakistan in a long time. Just as only Nixon could go to China without a being called a communist, only a military leader in Pakistan can seek real peace with India without being called a traitor. India must understand this and would do well to go beyond cosmetics and talk the real issues. If we fail now, it may be a long time before another serious opportunity presents itself.

For the sake of the two countries and their people, let us wish President Musharraf and Prime Minister Vajpayee all the best. The rest of the world may not care that much, but the eyes of the subcontinent would be riveted on this summit. Every move, every gesture, every event would be watched with an intensity seldom witnessed in our part of the world. If we show courage and wisdom, we shall not fail.