Shafqat Mahmood

The writer is a former Senator and a former federal and provincial minister

smahmood@lhr.comsats.net.pk

The home front is beginning to quieten down. There are stray demonstrations every day but nothing that disrupts the flow of daily life. The same cannot be said for the line of control in Kashmir. The Indians are deliberately trying to up the ante there. Artillery duels are not unknown on the LoC but the timing of the current exchange is not without purpose. Like a jilted lover, the Indians are desperate to remind the world that they are still around.

I am absolutely amazed at the childishness of Indian behaviour. One would have imagined that all those grey haired, dour looking old fogies who run India would have better sense than this. Unprovoked lobbying of shells across the line of control only puts India in a bad light and makes it look like an aggressor. There is no military purpose to this activity as it neither degrades our strength nor panics us in any way. So what does India hope to accomplish by raising the temperature in Kashmir.

Nothing more than reminding the world that there is an unresolved dispute that threatens the security of the Subcontinent. The more Kashmir comes into international focus, the more it works against the Indians. They have been trying for years to down play Kashmir as 'one of the many' problems between India and Pakistan. Consistent with this they strongly objected to Colin Powell's description of Kashmir as 'the' central problem between India and Pakistan and forced him to change 'the' to an 'a'. Yet, all that their military activity in Kashmir ends up doing is emphasising the centrality and importance of this dispute. It is for this reason, that their moves make no sense to me.

The Indians are really at the end of their tether. They do not know what to do given that they have lost out purely because of geography. Before September 11, they had pushed Pakistan into a corner on the propaganda front. Their cries of Pakistan being a terrorist state had begun to get some response in the West. Their democratic credentials were also a huge selling point. Now everything has turned topsy-turvy.

After the attacks on New York and Washington, Indian commentators had begun to rub their hands in glee at the prospect of Pakistan becoming a target. They understood, with justification, that it would not be easy for General Musharraf to join a campaign against the Taliban. This was sure to invite American retaliation and India was getting ready to play its part in sorting Pakistan out once and for all. Our decision to join the international coalition and ditch the Taliban has left them dumbfounded.

This surprise has turned into absolute agony by the amount of attention and favours being bestowed on us. United States is re-engaging with Pakistan in a big way. Old loans are in the process of being written off and new ones are on the way. Military ties have been re-established and their is talk of a sale of arms. What is more important, both sides are now discussing a new, more mature and longer term relationship. None of this pleases the Indians.

Pakistan's weak economy was always a trump card in India's hand. Even this is beginning to change. In the short term nothing great is likely to happen. In fact, if anything, we are looking at a very bad year or two. But, in the longer term, things look pretty good. IMF is now playing ball and would continue to do so as long as the Americans are behind us. Some of our bilateral debt is being written off and a freer access to American and European markets for our exports is a definite possibility. Countries as diverse as Japan, Australia, Germany and Canada are gearing up to provide aid. We may not become another Singapore or even Malaysia but things on the economic front certainly look better than they did on September 10.

A likely boost could also come to our economy once the war in Afghanistan is over. This time there is a serious desire on the part of the West to rebuild Afghanistan. If we play our cards right, we could be active participant in this endeavour. With money flowing into Afghanistan, it would be a new market on our doorstep as well as an opportunity for our entrepreneurs to undertake some projects or be subcontractors to western firms. There is also a chance that with Afghanistan stable, a majority of the refugees may go back. All this would certainly help our economy.

A stable Afghanistan can give us another boost. Central Asia is sitting on a huge reservoir of oil and gas. There is some speculation that one purpose of the attack on Afghanistan is to ensure American access to these riches. Whatever the reason, it is not to our disadvantage. Our coastline provides the shortest access to Central Asian oil and gas. A pipeline running from Central Asia, through Afghanistan and down to our coast, can only be good for us. Besides providing us with cheaper oil and gas, the royalties etc that this pipeline would bring could also be substantial.

The importance of a stable Afghanistan to us and to this entire region cannot be over emphasised. Think about it. On our east we have the huge Indian economy but it has been closed to us because of mutual suspicion and a lack of agreement on Kashmir. On the West there was nothing but war and refugees. Central Asia was geographically not too far but was inaccessible. Thus on both sides we were hemmed in. How can economies grow in these circumstances? A stable Afghanistan would change the equation on our west. A whole new region would open up for us. This can only be a potential benefit.

The Indians understand all these ramifications and it is bothering them no end. The stentorian tones of Jaswant Singh, who increasingly looks like a caricature with his bushy eyebrows and outer space cadence, cannot hide the pain within the Indian government. Flailing about for a suitable response they could not come up with anything better than firing across the LoC. Their perverse reasoning could be that this is the only way the West would continue to pay attention to them; that this is the only way they would not be forgotten in the stampede to court Pakistan.

This is really a shame because this was a good opportunity for the two countries to restart the peace process in the Subcontinent. The readers of this column know that I have been an ardent advocate of peace between the two countries. I have been highly critical of our government and of General Musharraf personally for muffing up the opportunity at Agra. I still believe that the only way forward for the people of South Asia is for India and Pakistan to live together in peace. But, I am must confess that I am deeply disappointed with the Indian leadership. I always thought Prime Minister Vajpayee to be a man of peace and have said so in my columns. His recent actions leave me bewildered.

Pakistan is going through a difficult phase. The fault lines in our state and society are widening by the day. Things are coming to a head, the chicken are coming home to roost, etc etc. Choose whichever cliche you are comfortable with. One thing is certain though. Some kind of a resolution has to come out of this. It is my estimation that after the dust settles, Pakistan will emerge as a modern, liberal and economically stable state. Call me an incurable optimist but this is the way I see the future.

Instead of being perturbed by this, the Indians should welcome it. A stable and economically viable Pakistan can only be good for the entire region, particularly for India. They should seize this opportunity to further push along the slight progress made at Agra, not lob shells to snuff out any chance of peace.