Shafqat Mahmood

The writer is a former Senator and a former federal and provincial minister

smahmood@lhr.comsats.net.pk

There is a certain ritual that is followed after every foreign trip by a Pakistani leader. Their first words on landing home are that it was a successful visit. This is done without exception. What the success is no one really knows but one thing is clear. No leader can be seen coming home without it. After fifty-four years of these triumphal foreign tours, we the people of this country should be firmly ensconced on a pinnacle of success. Alas, we are not even close but let us not spoil the atmosphere by mentioning these minor details. Our leaders need these accolades and it is our duty to give them.

Another part of the ritual is to claim forceful and courageous projection of the Kashmir cause. Every Pakistani leader and many minor luminaries like myself have made this claim, every time we came home after a 'successful' visit. Alas, the Kashmir cause after so much forceful and courageous projection is still nowhere near a resolution. But, hope springs eternal and think how bad the situation would have been if we had not projected this cause so vigorously for fifty-four years. It cost us an arm and a leg but this is a small price to pay for furthering national interest. Our newly anointed Kashmir Committee (another one!) is also itching to travel the world and we should facilitate them. Just the appearance of the 'first warrior' and his motley crowd of has-beens or never-weres is sure to change many a heart in our favour.

These rather anarchic thoughts come to me as General Musharraf is getting ready to come home after a visit to the United States. I have deliberately not called it successful because some of you might think I am being sarcastic. I am not because as of Thursday morning, when I am writing this piece of literature, few details have emerged. There is some speculation that one billion dollars of our bilateral debt is being written off. We are also hearing that the aid package will be enhanced to 600 million dollars. And, no less a person than President Bush also spoke about budget allocations for Pakistan in '03'. There is much in the offing but we will have to wait for what the diplomats call a joint communique to know for sure.

In the meantime, there are other aspects of this visit, which are worth considering. Let us start by focusing on what it means for General Musharraf. For someone who had overthrown a democratically elected government, and been universally reviled for it, this is the ultimate acceptance. The President of the United States not only hosted him in the White House but also called him a friend. Being a friend of the most powerful man in the world is no small matter. You and I are happy if the Nazim of Lahore considers us a friend. Here it is the President of the United States, folks. So get some much needed perspective.

It also means that as far as America is concerned, he is the man they would like to see and deal with in Pakistan. And if the United States of America feels this way, you can bet on it that everyone in the West and the East -- meaning Japan -- feels the same way. Why is this important? It is important because there is no real pressure on General Musharraf to restore that beautiful thing called true democracy in Pakistan. This does not mean that he won't. Just that there is no external pressure on him to do so.

My own guess is that the great democratic loving West will be quite happy if elections are held and a fig leaf of constitutional government is provided. This will help it in maintaining the myth that democracy is an issue with them. So, elections will be held according to the given timeframe. How free or fair they are is another matter. This is a decision General Musharraf will have to make. The West will not care as long as there is a modicum of respectability. It is my belief that he would like them to be fair but will keep out certain individuals, including Benazir and Nawaz Sharif. The great likeminded group of the Muslim League, already behaving like a King's Party, would pressure General Musharraf to rig the election in their favour. Let us hope and pray that he not only resists this demand but also puts them in their place much before it.

Going beyond the elections it is very clear that the Americans would like General Musharraf to essentially run the ship of state for many years to come. Any situation that erodes his power will make them uncomfortable. So, if the constitution is amended to make the Presidency more powerful and an overbearing National Security Council is put in place to oversee the parliament, it will be quietly welcomed.

In this matter the preferences of the West and General Musharraf's analysis of the situation seem to coincide. The name of the game is not power sharing as some imagine it to be. Power will reside firmly in the Presidency. The only thing yet to be worked out is how much of a minor role will the Prime Minister and the parliament play. The great General Naqvi is already on it. The parliamentarians are being told that they will have to sit on benches. The process of their denigration has begun.

On a personal level there is little doubt that this visit to the United States is a triumph for General Musharraf. He emerges from it with his international stature enhanced and his stewardship of Pakistan anointed with American and Western approval. This means that his stranglehold on power within the country will be greater than ever before. He is now the lord of all he surveys. We should be grateful that he is not another Zia or you would never be reading this in print. Power in the hands of a good man or a visionary is a blessing. In the wrong hand it is a curse. Only history will prove where exactly General Musharraf stands.

So much for the impact of this visit on the person of General Musharraf. We will also soon know the extent of the economic benefits coming our way. Another area where the fallout has to be strong is in our ongoing tension with India. If warfare is diplomacy by other means, General Musharraf has clearly outflanked India on the diplomatic front. It will not be easy for the Indians to impose a war on Pakistan, with most of the world standing by the Pakistani President. The symbolism of the White House visit will not be lost on them.

The rest of the world led by the Americans has decided that General Musharraf has done more than enough to stamp out terrorism in Pakistan. We may not understand this but a great deal of significance is given to his public pronouncements against Islamic extremism. Many other leaders of Islamic countries have waged a struggle against it but few have publicly condemned it. That is why General Musharraf's speech is considered to be so important.

The Indians have lost this particular propaganda battle. No one is willing to seriously consider their claim that Pakistani government is still supporting the Jihadis. The time has come for them to understand this and withdraw their forces to peacetime locations. Any adventure now on their part will find most of the world arrayed against them.

So let us come back to the original question. Was this a successful visit? Yes, very much for General Musharraf. Also in our favour as far as the recent tension with India is concerned. What else? If we get a billion or more in debt written off and get a substantial aid package, it could become a very good visit. The track we are moving on, we may also get the 28 F-16s after a few months. If this happens, then, this visit would surely be a triumph.